March 18, 2009
Space Migration or Human Extinction: Take Your Pick.
The dirty little secret behind many environmental movements and their followers is a deep wish to see large segments of the human population die off. This way the the Earth can restore itself from the overpopulated human civilization that has drained it. Ideally, these same loyal econauts see themselves as inheriting this New Earth paradise after all the unworthy people have died off. If you think I'm making this up or exaggerating, just ask them. One prominent "visionary" (who shall go nameless) said if people don't get with the program, they will be turned into mulch. Being an environmentalist myself, I'm not accusing all of them, just many of the louder voices currently dominating the conversation. You'll hear all sorts of scenarios of doom, gloom, and even glee that when it's all over, the Earth will have maybe at most a billion inhabitants left (if we're lucky) by the end of the 21st Century. Did I mention those same people will ride bicycles or walk, as technological civilization will be gone? These same people wax poetic about "peak civilization", a "return to nature", deindustrialization, and a wholesale shedding of technology. They're just like Ted Kaczynski, only nicer and not wanting to blow you up personally... nature will do it for them.
However they are right about one thing. Given our current level of dirty technology, population growth and rates of resource extraction, the human game of continual growth and material abundance cannot continue much longer without a severe environmental backlash from simple resource constraints. You can't extract what's no longer there. In other words, unless we find a way to magically transform our society through advanced nanotechnology into one that is 100% regenerative, large segments of the population will die off from a lack of resources necessary to feed, house and clothe them.
The honest truth is advanced nano-enabled regenerative technology is still a distant dream, and until it's realized, we can't count on it. Instead we must solve our problems now using tools already available or that can be built without requiring unforseen breakthroughs.
Clearly as long as we continue doing business within a fragile planetary ecosystem, pretty much everything we do needs to change, adapt, ephermalize, regenerate. I just hope that along with these changes, we don’t loose site of the bigger impetus which this all points - which is to continue onward, upward, outward off the planet and become a space faring species.
This is the first time in our planets evolution such a possibility is upon us. Given what’s at stake (massive ecological, economic and population collapse), it’s now or never that a strong push for space development must be made. Those talking about peak civilization and mandatory de-industrialization are a depressing, anti-evolutionary lot.
I think when real-world constraints start culling the population, radical evolutionary pressures upward will re-exert themselves. I’ve never known people to go quietly in the night, especially when bigger, better alternatives present themselves.
My fellow Lifeboat adviser Brian Wang is actively working on some very radical space propulsion designs which could reduce orbital launch costs to less than $1/Kg without the need for any new technological advances.
When billions of lives are at stake from a lack of biosphere support capacity, space migration is by far the saner choice, especially when many if not most industrial processes can be taken off world.This way everyone wins. The ecoheads can celebrate as all the industrialized processes they hate so much move wholesale offworld. The Earth, through tender stewardship by those choosing to stay behind, can be ushered back into a veritable garden of Eden without it requiring any devolution or death of the human species.
Space migration (smile) is indeed the way to the future for hu-man beings. Think of the tech and enterprise of becomming a space faring world. I for one would enjoy such an adventure. There are naysayers who believe we are interned on this prison planet(clandestine, at the rigirous intuition blog). He proports that the reptillion overlords are hiding from our sun and that their species is in quarentine by much higher lifeforms that run the space time around our solar system. Us hu-man beings cannot leave here either because of our dna being mixed with the cave dwellers. Perhaps some element of truth is in that thesis. I for one would like to test the space waters and let us shine forth our beauty to the universe and all it's intelligent lifeforms.Just finished an old PKD book called the unteleported man. We were born to explore our environment/ including space. SMILE. Respectfully Dennis.
I'm in agreement with the goal of space migration, it seems to me to be part of humans' evolutionary path. Yet I also feel that it's a necessary part of our evolutionary process to achieve a civilizational balance with other life forms on our home planet. The idea that we must eject ourselves into space as quickly as possible without first attaining that balance doesn't seem right to me. It strikes me as too much of an "escape hatch" approach to solving human / planetary problems.
I agree with you strongly about some elements in the environmental movement. I detect there a certain ecopuritanism, in some cases even ecofascism. Robert Anton Wilson makes the same point you do about some greenies' wish for massive depopulation in the general writings on his website. Their basic rap seems to be that nature is going to give us a big spanking for our technological hubris, take away our energy and other technologies, and no human ingenuity can divert us from anarchopuritan return to a hunter-gatherer society, which we (those of us who survive) should all celebrate. I think this unfeasible as well as undesirable. I certainly don't believe it's the way to a better future. It's all too similar to the post-apocalyptic fantasies of the most unsavory sort of fundamentalist religionists.
But why must we "take our pick?" Isn't this a false dichotomy? You state that nanotechnology is the ticket to the salvation of Earth, but I'm not so sure that's the only game in town. Buckminster Fuller pointed out that the technology to make all humans successful has been on the shelf since the mid-twentieth century at least. When you mention ephemeralization you're using a term invented by him to describe such technologies. I think we might still be able to save the situation, IF we intelligently utilized them *right now.* That's what I'd like to see happen.
In sum: I'm in favor of such designs as your friend is developing for space travel. But if I had to choose where the resources had to be allocated, it would be in making the world work for everyone in the shortest possible time, without ecological offense or the disadvantage of anyone - to borrow my words from Bucky. Oh yeah - and a massive global "family planning" campaign is overdue by a good half century.
Hi Kevin,
Here's my reasoning. According to almost every report and analysis I have found from a wide range of thinkers, they all seem to agree that the earth cannot support 7 billion human beings at it's current rate of consumption. In fact even the most optimistic ones such as Kieth Henson, founder of the L5 Space Colony Group from the 1970's is saying that unless some very radical space development projects are started soon, the earth will be left with no more than a billion people by the end of this century. This figure agrees with the more pessimistic thinkers as well. Therefore the 1 billion mark is an emerging consensus. This is the maximum carrying capacity of the earth using planet based material and energy resources.
So what's our options then? Well, we can allow 6+ billion people to die off over the next few decades, or we can make very strong moves towards space development. Given sufficient space energy resources beamed back to Earth, then the energy needs of several billion people could be met. But then the next problem is the material needs. Again, if space-based resources are incorporated, then it's possible, along with advanced nanotechnologies to also create a materially abundant society for several billion as well.
Either way, space development and migration is a necessity to stave off massive population collapse.
The other choice? Attempt to do the same thing *without* space development. I have yet to hear of ANY proposal on how this could be done *without* very mature nanotechnology. And the idea of unleashing advanced nanotechnology on a global scale without space development seems too risky.
My point being is that today we have the technologies to make a strong push for space migration. We do not have advanced nanotechnology. Optimists like Eric Drexler and Ray Kurzweil are predicting at least another 20-30 years before it becomes available. In that time, the population will swell to 8-9 billion, another 2-3 billion will join attempt to join the miiddle class, and the resultant resource depletion of rain forests, oceans, fisheries, streams, rivers, farmland, not to mention continued carbon increases affecting further global warming, and you got a full-scale ecological/economic disaster converging.
We need a massive push for Space Migration now. The more we can get that off the ground the better off we'll all be - both for the people remaining on the earth, and for all the rest saved from the benefits it will bring. Everyone wins, including the econauts who'll get a bright, green, clean Earth again.
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She couldnt hear over the roar of energy to tell if she made a sound. Once she found it, she turned it toward his breath, met his lips with hers. Tears spilled down Savouss cheeks when he laid his cheek on top of Irins head. Eyrhaen sipped her wine and decided that, tonight, she would be in a good mood. She waited until her breathing felt right again. Her gifts were not of the same caliber, as they were divinely enhanced. Startled from her thoughts, she glanced up at him. But… Abruptly, she caught Eyrhaen up in a hug. Gods, what a horrible thought! Clearing her throat, she stepped back and turned to face Nialdlye again. Her lip curled, and she shoved at his chest. The outer door to her suite opened quietly. She found her own breath finally, staring up at him. Brevin cupped her chin with one strong hand. His fingers laced with hers where she clutched the mattress. It didnt look like any of the stone or woodcarved trees. He tilted his face back up toward her. Youre not done questioning me. She blinked, thankful that hed broached the subject. He weighed her breasts with his palms, squeezing gently.
He gripped Tykirs hip, lest they both topple from the strength of his thrusts. Radin, however, turned to face her with a bright smile that showed clean white teeth. He nodded, slid an arm about Irins shoulders, and led his truemate from the room. Brevin stood, another cloth in hand. Frustration and anger buzzed, blurring her vision. Just because theyd agreed didnt mean she didnt feel the urge. She and Radin dined with Hyle and Gala in their rooms. Her fingers slid in, unhindered. Hyles strong arms tightened about her, and he sat back, pulling her into his lap. She wished he were there, but she understood why it was best that he wasnt. Her fingers curled into fists, and she pounded both of them on his chest. I cant apologize any more tonight. It would be strange if she did. Tykirs cock slid deliciously through her hands, the oils from his skin coating her palms. She screamed, unconsciously tearing at his hair. They burned like a banked fire. Thats wonderful, she thought back to Radin. Again, she easily pictured it. Youd allow me to breed with another man? Because she could not deny him—deny them—any longer.
Nialdlye shook out her hand as though it would help the creeping sensation to fade. Salin told me that he was awake, but hes not come out of his suite. Stay where you are. They had fought about it too often for Eyrhaen not to know what he meant. Then she opened her eyes.
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